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TREND ANALYSIS

 


Three methods for trend analysis:
 
 
Futures Wheel
 
The Futures Wheel begins with an assumption that a trend, decision or occurrence is given and then looks at the possible consequence that might arise, both reinforcing and deterring. The Futures Wheel looks at secondary and tertiary consequences of the same trend, decision or occurrence, giving a picture of the possible consequence over time. It illustrates how secondary and tertiary consequences might work together to strengthen or weaken the original trend or make it mute. The futures wheel does not predict the future but widens the perspective and heightens awareness. Futures Wheel can be a big help when one begins to write scenarios and want to show the possible consequences of a perceived development.

An example of a Futures Wheel based on the trend of a growing number of choices of obtaining renewable energy:
 

 
 
 
Cross Impact Matrix
 
Cross Impact Matrix is a quick and effective process that can help us to understand how trends and occurrences can affect one another. The ability to make clear, understand and document such interactions has shown itself to be valuable in many situations, the least of which is decision making and prioritizing.
 
Cross Impact Matrix has its source in a simulation called "Futures" that was developed during the 60's by Gordon and Helmer. It was developed to show how two parallel occurrences could influence one another so that the one or the other or both were changed or some unexpected result occurred. Other methods often underscore a question that is seen as completely independent, but by placing the question in a matrix one can see how it influences and is influenced in turn by a greater system.

 

CROSS IMPACT MATRIX
  Trends
How would this trend impact this trend? Increased unemployment More time for personal interests Less cash
Increased unemployment
X
my own interests define who I am , not my work more unemployment due to less purchasing power
More time for personal interests development of a hobby as a garranty against unemployment
X
development of personal interests that do not require cash
Less cash more home made and cooked food and gifts increased trade for services
X

 
 
Nine-Box Matrix
 
Nine-Box is a very simple technique that is used in order to evaluate a groups understanding of a situation or a question. With the help of this technique, one can test for believability of an occurrence actualization and the the expected effect of that occurrence might have.
 
A series of nine-box-matrixes can be used to analyze a complex of questions or problems and with the help of mathematic calculations one can get a priority list over the questions that are most relevant to monitor or upon which to take action.

 

     LARGE    Effect    SMALL
LARGE
 
 
 
Likelihood
 
 
 
SMALL
 
 
 

 

 
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